As new U.S. tariffs sink into the Canadian economy, the idea of a prolonged trade war is something Canadians will need to get used to — even after President Donald Trump leaves office, experts say.
“I don’t see this changing any time soon. I don’t think this goes away magically when Trump exits the White House, and so for Canada, it’s wishful thinking to think we can hold our breaths and white-knuckle it for the next 24 or 26 months,” says political science associate professor Aaron Ettinger of Carleton University.
“Canada needs to be prepared for a tariff regime coming from the United States that continues beyond the Trump administration.”
Trump’s new 50 per cent tariffs took effect over the weekend after Canada walked away from the negotiating table. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the trade talks broke apart because the U.S. was asking for too much while offering little in return, including restrictions on who Canada can trade with.
For over a year of off-and-on tariff policies and trade negotiations, many Canadians and businesses have been clouded by a sense of uncertainty for what the future holds for the economy.
A report from Deloitte in July suggested Canada’s economy was “on pause” and waiting for a clearer path, with businesses hesitant to invest in expanding their operations and hiring new workers.
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BC Conservatives calling on province to support businesses affected by U.S. trade war -
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Premier Eby asks British Columbians to avoid travelling to US as Canada fires back against Trump with counter-tariffs -
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US trade war ramps up after talks collapse over the weekend -
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Carney vows ‘dollar-for-dollar’ retaliation after Canada-US trade talks collapse -
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Global News at 6 Toronto: June 30, 2026
On Tuesday, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly announced a round of additional financial support measures for Canada’s small businesses in the wake of these new tariffs, and that some would be available even after Trump leaves the White House.
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“The other way we’ll be able to help a lot of our small businesses is through the BDC, which will have $500 million to support through interest-free loans that will be between $250,000 to up to $5 million. And there will be no repayment, no capital actually to pay back to the BDC for the next 36 months — so after the Trump administration,” Joly said.
“What businesses will need to show is they only need to show that their cash flow will be impacted by the tariffs.”
Trump is currently serving his second and final term as president of the United States, which concludes in January 2029, with midterm elections to be held this fall. Trump will still hold office as president after the midterm elections, but the divide of power between Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate could change.
“A Democratic-controlled Congress could try to rein Trump in by adjusting the laws or repealing the laws, but that would require Trump’s signature, and he would just veto anything that constrains his own power.”
This means even if the Republican Party loses control of both the House and the Senate in the fall, Trump may still be able to maintain most of the current tariff policies.
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In November 2028, Americans will cast ballots to determine a new president to replace Trump in 2029, which is when things could change.
“It’d be very easy for any subsequent president to use the legislation that Trump has used to impose these tariffs to get rid of them probably literally overnight with a stroke of a pen,” says Prof. Asa McKercher, Hudson Chair in Canada-U.S. Relations at the Brian Moroney Institute at St. Francis Xavier University.
Although a new president could theoretically do away with Trump’s tariff policies relatively quickly, unravelling how those policies will have become rooted in the economy over several years could take much longer.
“Businesses on both sides of the border have already adapted to the tariff system. They have readjusted their business practices, found new markets and so on and so forth. Reversing that all at once is unrealistic, and in any event, it would take a long lead time to adapt properly to a more free-trade system as we had before Donald Trump came to office,” Ettinger says.
“We can’t just expect that Trump goes away, we snap our fingers, and everything returns to a pre-Trump status quo. These tariffs are going to have cascading effects and echoing effects all down the line, even if the Republican Party loses Congress in 2026 or Trump is out of the White House in 2028/2029.”
The Conservative Party got Canada into this mess. 1983 was the turning point when Mulroney became Prime Minister and negotiated the first Free Trade agreement and gave away control of Canada’s oil economy to the US.
This is a history lesson 45 years in the making: Pierre Elliot Trudeau had wanted to create Canada’s own national oil industry; free of American control. The Conservatives did the opposite: give away the oil sands to Big Oil corporations after Canada spent millions upon millions developing it (privatization). And, Mulroney’s Conservatives Free Trade deal gave away building our own refineries to instead, rely on the US producing gas and diesel fuel, etc. for Canada. We supply the crude oil for cheap to the US. Now Canada is stuck! If we tariff crude oil, then Canadians will pay higher gas prices because the Americans will add it to the refined products produced for Canada.
This is what Premier Smith means when she says tariffs on crude oil won’t work. She is right!
But with Trump’s trade war going on today; ask yourself; who had the right vision for Canada’s oil industry: Pierre or Brian?
Ask yourself also; why doesn’t Trump just tear up the Free Trade deal; CUSMA? He won’t because it gives the US control of Canada’s oil and gas industry. Now Trump has CUSMA on a path to end in 16 years. Canada is locked in to this process (trap), no matter who is President.
If Carney had agreed to Trump’s demand that Canada can’t sign Free Trade deals with other countries then that would have meant that Trump tightened the screws on America’s control of Canada’s economy.
So what does this all mean?
It means Canada is in a 16 year walk away process that Trump has set in motion.
Daniele Smith is saying; let’s stick with “free trade” and hope for the best! It gives Alberta 111 billion per year for another 16 years and screw the Team Canada approach!
Smith does not care that Quebec and Ontario stand to bear the brunt of Trump’s trade war with economies of cars, steel and aluminum; she is living for the moment for the next 16 years.
So whose vision is best for Canada? Smith’s follow the dead end road and hope for the best or Carney’s vision to start walking away from CUSMA too and diversify Canada’s economy with other trading partners? And, I would add; Canada needs to build its own refineries during the 16 year walking away period because Alberta will one day need Quebec and Ontario to buy its oil.
It will not be the new normal like the Liberals are hoping for.
Stop being dumb.
@ Jfk – The few that travel to the states are not the ones that single payer healthcare is designed for. Canadians live 3 years longer because we don’t have a large, uninsured segment of the population that has to delay treatment because it will impoverish them. We look after everyone.
When you are beaten just stay down.
Everyone? What about the Canadiens that come to the states for specialized medical care and operations. I know they count.
@ Jfk – Canadian life expectancy is 3 years longer because we take care of everyone.
Yes, as long as it’s anyone not tied to the MAGA retread party!!!
Young Albentan , stay in canada if you want to wait 2 years for a hip replacement or stay in the hallway till a Dr. Can see you. You’re welcome to come to America.
trump will lose a lot of mid-west farmers this fall.
That was unheard of just a year ago.
Potash.
Hey Young Albertan for 51: You either finish Grade 6 and hopefully you will learn something (but most likely you won’t) or LEAVE Canada for good. We don’t need negative attitudes or people like you. If you can’t contribute anything positive to our country and like America so much, go there and stay there. Hopefully you can find a job that pays well because if you get sick, and can’t afford medical care, oh well. Nobody wants you and don’t care if you were born in Alberta, because the only rights you have is the right to leave our country.
Just another way to screw the non rich
The useless, parasitic regime in Ottawa is the problem. Alberta 51 is the answer!
Then Saskatchewan 52, British Columbia (will need name change) 53, Manitoba 54…
Finally someone is saying that getting rid of Trump won’t make everything right again. Canadians who think getting rid of Trump will fix everything are dreaming. The world has changed since Trump just like it changed after Covid and there is no going back. Canadians and Canada have to adapt to this change and find a way to deal with this Trump like the rest of the world has done or our economy is gone.
I don’t recall any POTUS not putting tariffs on our softwood, even when they get told they’re illegal by the WTO.
My fear is this is the new normal. We need to urgently redirect our trade away from the USA.
Miike. CUSMA does not prevent any of the parties from trading with any other countries. CUSMA only requires that if a party wants to negotiate a free trade agreement with a non-market economy must give three months notice to the other parties, but it does not stop that party from negotiating that trade agreement.
I would like to think that when Cheeto is voted out, we can go back to friendly negotiations. Right now, negotiating with that numpty is NOT an option. Canadians are tire of it.
tariff agreement which is law with the free trade alliance between Mexico Canada and USA states that the parties involved can not trade with any body it feels like .The liberals know this and are willing to dissolve the agreement for there own political gains and not for Canadian benefits. BIG MISTAKE CANADA SORRY FOR THE PAIN.
Let’s embrace the EU with their products and vehicles. Also align closer with China trade and building their cars. I’m tired on the Yank influence.