On Monday, Albertans will vote in a province-wide referendum on a series of questions about the province’s future, and the question drawing the most attention is whether to hold a second referendum on separation; Ipsos’ current polling suggests Albertans will reject that possibility, with only 23 per cent saying they will vote to trigger the second vote and 70 per cent saying they will vote to stay part of Canada. But the outcome on nine other themes – immigration, federal programs and greater provincial autonomy – is far less certain.
Looking only at the immigration-related questions, Ipsos polling conducted in September found that a majority of Albertans supported giving their province greater control over immigration (65 per cent) and denying access to federally funded programs to people who do not have legal status in Canada (59 per cent). In our polling, we tested support for the concept, not the actual referendum question, so the results reflect how Albertans feel about these issues in general.
Most interestingly, however, Albertans aren’t the only ones who feel this way. In fact, Canadians outside Alberta are more likely to support these proposals than Albertans.
As it stands, 74 per cent of Canadians outside of Alberta supported giving their province more control over immigration, and 67 per cent supported denying access to federal programs to those who do not have legal status. This suggests that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has captured the public mood of both Albertans and the broader population. A national debate on immigration will likely follow, especially if the Alberta referendum delivers majority support for some of these policy proposals.
Indeed, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, an avowed federalist and one of the loudest voices for the “no” side on the separation question, is calling for such a debate, and there is increasing evidence that Canada’s consensus on immigration is becoming a ballot box issue.
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This could put Alberta’s government at odds with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government.
The federal immigration minister recently signalled that Canada plans to open its immigration targets to allow more immigrants, despite housing affordability remaining a concern. Other concerns remain, as polls consistently show that affordability is a major issue. And Alberta is now proposing to wrest control over immigration from the federal government and create two classes of social support – one for those without status, and one for those with it. Our poll suggests Canadians agree with both propositions.
Overall, people are thinking about how we should approach immigration – and the costs associated with it – amid a housing and affordability crisis. For her part, Smith has urged Albertans to vote “yes to the nine,” arguing that immigration costs are prohibitively expensive, while Carney has called on Albertans to vote no. While they are on the same side on Alberta’s future in Canada, they differ on how to approach immigration, despite finding common ground on issues such as pipelines and supporting the growth of Alberta’s energy industry.
Remarkably, especially for a Liberal prime minister in Alberta, Albertans view Carney most favourably, while they view Smith least favourably. On immigration and provincial rights, though, Smith appears to share most Canadians’ view, not Carney.
Whatever happens tomorrow, the Alberta referendum will shake up Canada. Alberta separatists have made it clear they will not let the issue go and will treat the “stay or leave” vote’s result as a permanent decision on their project, so that issue is unlikely to go away quickly, no matter the result. The debate over Alberta’s future within the federation has obscured how it might operate if it decides to remain.
If Smith wins a majority on some or all of the “other nine” questions, we might expect her to believe she has a mandate from the population to act. She may try to work with other premiers to raise these issues with the federal government and obtain more direct control over immigration and provincial rights from Carney.
She will have an ally in Quebec premier-elect Paul St.-Pierre Plamondon, who has pledged to use the early days of his premiership as leader of an overtly separatist party to advance provincial interests, having deferred a referendum on separation until when President Trump leaves office.
During the recent Quebec provincial campaign, the incoming premier also promised to cut the number of immigrants being allowed into the province, seeking even more powers than what Quebec already enjoys through a 35-year-old agreement giving Quebec more control on immigration than most provinces have. These are powers Smith is seeking for Alberta as well.
Smith, too, has reason to pick a fight with Ottawa. Some members of her own party feel she hasn’t gone far enough on separation. They are opposing her vow to not revisit the issue if Monday ends with a vote for the status quo, and some separatist supporters vowing to oust her at the upcoming leadership review. She has campaigned fiercely for a strong Alberta within a united Canada and said she voted “no” on that question. But she has voted “yes” to the other nine. If the separation question was designed to appease her base, the other nine may reveal her true ambitions: to secure more control for Alberta over immigration, control costs, and ensure that only those legally allowed in Alberta receive taxpayer-funded services.
The results on those questions, not only for Albertans but for all Canadians and far more than Alberta’s future in Canada as a province, may be the most consequential issues to emerge from tomorrow’s election, and the ones that will shape debate across Canada for the next year and beyond.
It should not always have to be a “public fight” when debating issues important to all Canadians. I wish our media would be more careful in how they express their views.
Canada was grown on immigration. I have no problem with that process. The random open door on massive refugees is another matter. Ottawa allows who they want into Canada, then leaves it to the provinces to fund everything. Time to revisit that concept.
Giving provincial governments like Smith and Ford more control over immigration would only be another disaster file. Neither one of them can manage their provincials financially or effectively as it is.
An islamist is closer to Canada than Corny Carny, the trans father….🤮🐀
It is not racism when Canadians voice their concerns over immigration. Understand that it has nothing to do with their race, bloodlines, or genetic origins at all, and nobody said it did. Stop gaslighting, Sean Webb.
We should be concerned that so many Canadians blame immigrants and visible minorities for all of their problems. We should be concerned about the very open racism. There is a reasonable and nuanced position to argue on the numbers of immigrants, refugees and international students that we intend to allow and how we prepare for it. But in Alberta and elsewhere we are seeing some really vulgar, ugly and ignorant blood and soil chants.
Yes she is! The liberals and their policies are solely responsible for the health care and education mess.
Or will it be like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?! Bonnie and Clyde?
This is the LAST thing we need !!!! Just adding to Alberta’s mental health issues. How much more before Albertans go ” postal” ! How are they going to handle when MOM AND DAD get a divorce? Who goes with who? Who gets what? Will there be 2 christmas or just a lump of coal /( oil ) ?!
This article tries to use a poll that specifically asked about illegal immigration (those with “no status”) to pretend that Canadians are opposed to immigrants and immigration. As the article says, a clear supermajority (67%) of Canadians *strongly* agree that diversity and immigration are good for the country. When you include people who ‘somewhat agree’, it’s closer to 80-85%, despite Global News commentators and Russian bot farms trying to convince us otherwise.
If Eby survives the political apolcolypse that engulfed BC Mayoral and city council elections I shall count myself disappointed.
The end to everything the left pander to cannot come soon enough. Their social policies read like Conservative NIMBYISM extremists of yesterday.
Enough with money dictating our rights. Enough with people that cannot value effort determining the wage.
It is time for a revolution that unseat the world’s elitist. A changing of the guard. A dismantling if not destruction of the current paradigm.
look at all these poor little crybabies. wait till we cut off the governemnt even more, hope yoiu are enjoying your, asylum seekers and refugess. they do not come here, you slimeballs of Canada.
BC resident tried to tell Chuck Norris the earth was flat, Chuck Norris round house kicked him so hard he flew in a straight line around the earth and hit himself in the back of the head
@bc residumb, he’s always walking bowlegged from climbing in pig pen at night and getting bum facked
@Jules On
They wanted a pipeline and data centres. They made up a hollow threat so the federal government could say they HAD to build the (wildly unpopular and unnecessary) pipeline and data centres or Alberta would separate. They are playing on ignorance to get these things done and unfortunately reading these comments, it’s working.
We should never ever forget that it is Danielle that wanted Alberta to break from Canada & become part of her beloved U.S.! Why did she change her mind? What exactly is her real game?
BC resident you sure have your panties in a bunch. its almost like you are getting some kind of cheap thill out of running down Alberta.. did you man handled in Alberta at one time? and this is the causes of your egression ????
I guess there will be a separation after all?!!
The kissing cousins might be separating?!!!!
As usual Carney hasn’t got a clue what real Canadians think. Just like his “Associate membership” in the failing EU and his allowing of Chinese EV’s and inferior steel into Canada is an indication of just how out of touch he really is. All he has is his one world order elitist views that please his just as out of touch elbozo’s followers.
Same policy different party. If you can’t see that, we are doomed. You can keep blaming immigrants but it won’t change anything, all of history has proven this.
Everyone can see Canada has gone downhill the past 15 years, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see it, I personally think it’s too late to fix
she sure is, carney is out of touch
invite more fu.. k immigrants.. and produce Hybrid.. nonsese.. there is no Canadaina left or will be gone in next 3-5 yrs. lets replace canadians,,
Most immigrants are like house squatters.. they get in to Canada and demand free taxpayer $$ and health care to stay here.. I say they need to be sponsored to get in, and the sponsors need to pay for their time in Canada, and be responsible for what they do while they are here!
@CB TDS is treatable, maybe not in your case. But let me ask you this: what’s wrong with having an economy that actually provides solid jobs and incomes? Or are we supposed to wait for Carney to toss some coppers our way and thank him while he hollows out the country for Brookfield and his cronies?
Oh no! she’s acting like a populist not an elite. Time to rain discredit down upon her! Canandians are lazy and contemptable for the most part.
I feel like I’m in a foreign country in Canada now!
As Canadians suffer, our government invades our country with a foreign country that is rapidly replacing us. even if they shut the gates now its too late, these people will overpopulate us in other generation. This is pure TREASON!!! REVOLUTION NOW!!!
Carney is no Canadian. He has 3 passports and barely lived in Canada the last 20 years. His family lives in the US and his children go to College there
Just a reminder to everyone struggling to get ahead… Liberals intend to bring in replacement workers to keep holding you down.
For jobs that pay 1.3 x the average Canadian salary… See: the promoriom you have been busting your ass for… Yeah, Carey’s giving it to foreigners to further supress your wages and limit your prosperity.
Carney wants to sell Canada out to his socialist pals in the EU. Massive protests yesterday in France as the Government has ignored the will of the people. Why would Canada want to join such a place.
Smith is a Trumpidiot, who would sell this country down south just for a few oil dollars. She thinks only of her own gains and not for province or country.
Oh please. NEITHER is a Canadian as far as I’m concerned. One is leading us to Trump and 51, the other is leading us to a fascist dictatorship sponsored by the EU. They both have their own agendas. Both are getting very rich while Canadians starve!!!
TO H*LL WITH THEM BOTH AND TO H*LL WITH A MEDIA PAID TO BLOW HOT AIR UP AZZES!!
@Ben. All the fault lies with Trudeau and carney, currently they are solely responsible for Immigration in Canada, including the planning for it to be successful
The only people supporting liberal immigration policies are terrorists trying to sneak into our country.
Carney should not have chimed in the other 9 questions and what answers he wants. He should have just allowed the vote to happen and listen to Canadians. Instead he prefers a pre determined outcomes and he undermines the referendum.
I don’t think anyone here has a problem with immigration or multiculturalism as a whole. The problem is, when you say immigration or multiculturalism in 2026, it means exclusively Muslims. Aren’t there people in other countries that want to be here too? Or is it just the ones that actively seek to destroy us?
The useful.idiots wont be happy wirh that
Danielle Smith at one point wanted a LOT more immigration. Is she, and the other Premiers who begged for more immigrants, going to admit that? Also we need more immigration because we are short of workers in many industries.