A new poll released Friday suggests Olivia Chow is holding a 9 per cent lead over Brad Bradford in Toronto’s mayoral contest.
The Pollara Strategic Insights’ survey indicates the incumbent leads her main challenger 55 per cent to 44 per cent among decided voters, including those who have already voted.
Other polls, however, suggest there is no clear favourite.
Several polls recently have put Bradford slightly ahead of Chow. Others still place her ahead of Bradford – including a Pollara survey released Tuesday – indicating a very tight race, according to the research firms that publish the polls.
A Liaison Strategies survey released Wednesday puts Bradford at 49 per cent support and Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with three per cent choosing someone else.
In this most recent poll, Chow has lost a five-point lead she had in a Liaison Strategies poll published Oct. 13.
Another poll published Tuesday by Mainstreet Research put Bradford’s support at 48.9 per cent and Chow at a “nearly equal” 47.5 per cent.
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Both candidates have been hitting the pavement daily in the final week before the Oct. 26 election to reach those precious undecided voters who may push the vote slightly more on either side.
Pollara’s online poll from Friday suggests 48 per cent of respondents have positive feelings about Chow, while only 36 per cent feel the same about Bradford.
It also shows Chow leading Bradford on working with other levels of government, affordability, safety, and taxes, but voters are split on which candidate will bring change or best serve the economy and jobs.
The poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416 (Toronto Civic Employees’ Union). On Oct. 1, the union formally endorsed Chow as its preferred candidate.
Chow is looking to secure her first full term after winning the 2023 mayoral byelection, while Bradford is seeking to become Toronto’s sixth mayor since amalgamation on Jan. 1, 1998.
Between Oct. 16 and 21, Pollara conducted a hybrid online and telephone survey of 1,094 Toronto residents aged 18 and older who are eligible to vote: 697 online panel completes and 397 live telephone interviews. Data was weighted to reflect the age, gender and regional composition of Toronto’s adult population, based on the most recent census figures. While online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error, a probability sample of this size would be accurate to ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20. Vote results include those who have already voted at the advance polls (26%) and were asked how they voted.
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from Oct. 18 to Oct. 19, 2026, using conventional phone and Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters.
Mainstreet Research conducted its survey between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18, 2026 with a sample size of 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using conventional phone Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
The Pollara Strategic Insights survey was fielded Oct. 13 to 19, 2026. It surveyed Toronto residents aged 18+ eligible to vote (695 online panel, 404 live telephone). It was weighted to census data by gender, age and region. It states that “because the sample includes an online panel, no margin of error applies”. A probability sample of 1,099 would carry a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and more for subgroups. Subgroups with an unweighted base under 100 should be read with caution, it says.
Thanks for proving my point moron. Cities in Ontario cannot run deficits.
To the real moron:
“Anonymous
October 25, 2026 at 7:08 am
To the moron below there waa no 13 years of debt. Cities can’t have deficits. Keep lying.”
Key Debt and Financial Facts
• Operating Budget Rule: Under the City of Toronto Act, Toronto cannot run a deficit for its annual operating budget; debt is issued strictly for capital infrastructure projects.
• Credit Rating: S&P Global rates the City at AA+ with a stable outlook.
• Debt Limit Policy: City Council limits debt-servicing charges (principal and interest) to no more than 15% of property tax revenues.
• Sinking Funds: The city maintains sinking funds to repay principal upon maturity, projected in the billions to offset gross debt figures.
• 2026 Budget Context: The finalized 2026 City Budget features a $63.1 billion 10-year capital plan and relies on ongoing financial measures, including support via the Ontario-Toronto New Deal.
You can review past and active bond details through the City of Toronto Investor Relations portal.
Chow needs to be destroyed.
To the moron below there waa no 13 years of debt. Cities can’t have deficits. Keep lying.
Slug ford’s lapdog who will give the province everything and more. If the media was honest, if far-right organizations and billionaires weren’t tipping the scales and flooding social media with anti-chow propaganda, this wouldn’t be such a close race. A vote for bradturd is a vote for slug ford, who in turn is a vote for maga/chump. Toronto will be ruined if we elect a maga mayor. Fools.
13 years of Right wingers running Toronto ruined the city, exploded our debt, yet no blame on Slob ford and Tory? Right wingers love to waste our money. The propaganda machine, funded by Republicans and post media, is in full effect right now, and you’re the sap who believes it. Pathetic. Sad Bradturd would destroy Toronto if elected. Right wingers lead to larger debts, higher repair costs, heavier bureaucracy, less privacy, slashed services, privatization, and irresponsible spending. Fools.
If you were a realist, you’d know homelessness has decreased under Chow. How do you tackle addiction by both cutting services and not treating the underlying causes of addiction? You right wingers truly are fools.
I believe that Toronto needs a mayoral change for sure. I think Brad Bradford has great ideas to make Toronto a better place to live. To make it safer for the citizens of Toronto by hiring more police officers and also for freezing property takes for a year as well as other positive issues he will do to make Toronto a much better place to live. Please people go out and vote for Brad Bradford he will be a good and responsible mayor for our fine city of Toronto. He’s got my vote! Thanks Toronto!
Nothing makes city’s work worse than run by NDP socialists!
Toronto is a good example!
@greedyboomers. I have seen more signs in my neighborhoold for a city mayor than any time in my life (and for Bradford). I have never voted for mayor nor my wife and most of my friends. Literally everyone I know is voting for Bradford and voting for the first time for mayor. There is going to be a signficantly higher than normal turnout. That’s what the pundits are missing. People are fed up with being taxed to death and not getting services for what they pay.
saw this comment from a chow supporter
homelessness will explode, as will drug use”
Makes you wonder what city this person lives in…literallly describing Toronto under chow
Narnia must be nice
We need change in all levels of government in Canada.
You know its desperat times when comments outright lie.
Cities in Ontario don’t run deficits. They legally have to run balanced budgets.
Bradford isn’t privatizing water.
@David Best We aren’t panicking, cupcake. Chow’s been leading the entire time. The media loves the horse race. Chow’s cut Toronto deficit nearly in half in under 4 years, and has a very responsible election platform. Sad Bradturd is the one panicking. By Tuesday, he’s out of municipal politics, fortune willing. 🙏
Just look at these comment sections, they can never give you a single reason why they hate who they hate. Sad Bradturd will slash services, gut the TTC, privatize our water and turn Toronto into a police state. We’ll lose our bike lanes, be choking under traffic, and homelessness will explode, as will drug use. Vote Chow. Stop the far-right from destroying Toronto after 13 years of their torture.
Chow and her supporters are starting to panic…OMG…what to do? Promise the voters everything ! Pure panic !
CUPE Local 416 paid for the Pollara survey. CUPE nationally openly identifies itself as a partisan union and founding partner of the NDP.
Canadian Union of Public Employees. CUPE Local 416 has publicly endorsed Olivia Chow for re-election. Crazy what one quick search can show you
Chow is only leading by default for having a better balance of public services and cuts versus funding with cost. Bradford has good public services and cuts planned but the funding is a mystery which could lead to service cuts. If Chow wins, it’s not because she’s better, but less worse and voters are reluctantly voting her.
Tom, plenty of us ride bikes recreationally on the weekend, and commute on the TTC most of the work week. We liked him in our ward and want him as our mayor.
Bradly claims to have cycled over 10,000 Km the past year, but days he rides the TTC everyday. If you’re doing both, then you’re not doing much of anything else. His constituents are right. He’s MIA from his riding and probably his family.
55-44 is 11. Not 9. Math clearly isn’t your strong suit.
She was a massive mistake the first time she was elected and she will be a massive mistake the second time shes voted in. Voters are dumb. Just like liberal voters Elbows up.
your story should lead by saying in a poll conducted by CUPE’s choice poller. so misleading with your headline.
Anon241 is a 🤡. Cities in Ontario cannot have debt, period.
And Ian already said he won’t privatize water.
Ford has been reelected twice now
Good. All Bradford wants to do is add massive loan debt onto the city. Just like Ford who has added more to the provincial debt than any Ontario Premier. No one wants our water privatized. And yes, it was on his website (which I printed off) before the backlash began and is now removed. It doesn’t mean he changed his mind on it though. In every debate, he kept changing his story, changing numbers contained in his platform. I don’t trust him. Reminds me too much of Ford.
IF this poll is accurate, all I can say is, “There goes the neighbourhood!”
Online polls are the least accurate. Means nothing.
the village idiot is not leading.Her only talent is dressing up in any outfit and dancing.She is unqualified to head up a 19 billion dollar corporation which is what Toronto is.
Her only attribute is that she was Jack Laytons wife.
The hippes who are the boomers havea lifelong commitment to socialism.The boomesr are dying out.They will be the most dispissed generation
Chow believes in welfare for everyone! That the city will take over parent’s responsibilities for their children, starting with feeding them breakfast and lunch; on the tax payers dime! Lets not stop there folks. The city will then clothe the children and tell them what to think. Communism for everyone !
I don’t buy it. Why would anyone want to see her re-elected? More and more Canadians are not happy with the status quo. A report out today shows that immigration to the US is up a wopping 142%.